Middle East, After America Leaves
We’ll look at the Middle East, which will be a part of a series of articles discussing what different regions of the world will look like when America finally leaves the rest of the world and retreats to North America.
The immediate consequence is opening up opportunities for regional powers to act independently of the United States of America for the first time in over 80 years.
The best way to break this down is into three chunks: the role of the US as it leaves, the role of regional powers as they rise, and the role extra-regional powers might play.
During World War II and after 1945, America repeatedly interfered in the Middle East region. This was primarily due to oil before the Americans.
The British and the French were competing with one another on who could control the region’s oil in other areas of significance. During the post-World War I from 1919 to 1939 and including the period of the Second World War, both great powers undermined each other’s position within the Middle East.
The Brits, for example, gave away French colonies without asking the French, and the French, in turn, supported Israel terrorists against the British, forcing them to leave the lands formerly called Israel and Palestine in 1948.
The USA has historically always been an oil exporter.
For any oil needs, the United States must have mainly sourced its oil from Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela and domestic sources within the United States of America itself.
Reasons for the American involvement in the Middle East and, particularly, Saudi Arabia were due to the United States of America fighting for the interests of its allies during the Cold War.
Which started in the aftermath of World War II and ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1989 and 1991, respectively.
The United States is growing increasingly energy independent due to the shale revolution of the 2000s, and American presidents and the American public have become increasingly isolationist since 1992 with the election of Bill Clinton to the office of president.
In practical terms, this means the United States of America is no longer interested in the rest of the world because, in political terms, the rest of the world doesn’t matter to the United States of America, a continental nation with a continental economy.
Due to its sheer size, population, and geographical diversity, Americans don’t need the rest of the world. This same attitude also applies to India, another continental nation, and the Chinese only to a lesser extent.
Within the Middle East, the actual military power is Turkey, which possesses the most prominent military and, without the interference of the United States of America, dominates its territories and sphere of influence as the former Turkish Ottoman Empire.
Unfortunately for the Turks, or fortunately, depending on your point of view, Turkey has a problem due to its geography, being a European and Asian power at the same time.
Turkey cannot leverage its strength and put its back on its interests due to its other competing interests and the limitations of its geography.
The Turks must be concerned about the Balkans and the Greeks, arguing and fighting over its territories in Cyprus and competing island interests and border disputes between Turkey and Greece.
Other issues facing Turkey as a separatist movement within Turkey and Syria, Iran and Iraq that combined have over 30 million Kurdishs wishing for independence.
Turkey will be the one to watch once the USA leaves the region for good. As stated above, the only thing that might keep them from leading the Middle East is being too involved in other regions.
Turkey faces issues from multiple regions that leave the other regional powers with the Middle East, which are regional powers in the Middle East, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The Israelis will also most likely partner with the Saudis that will leverage that oil to get the protection of Israel against the Iranian regime.
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, with the United States leaving the region, requires the support of another significant military backer, which means the more likely alternatives as of now are as follows: the Chinese or Israelis and other potential actors that hope to influence the region.
The external powers that could play a role here are pretty limited. Outside of the US, Britain, France, and Japan are the only real countries that could and would want to project power in this area of the world.
And with the Japanese/American partnership, the US will empower them to do so.
The reason why China hasn’t been discussed as being a significant player within the Middle East is that of the 600 ships Navy, only 50 vessels travel over 1000 miles from the coast of China,
Also, according to the geopolitical analyst Peter Zilhen, in the immediate future, China will be a nonissue within the Middle East region, at least militarily.
With all these power moves and manoeuvring within the Middle East, the most significant wish for the Americans is that Israel, Turkey, Iranians and Saudis keep the region divided so it doesn’t threaten American interests.
However, with all these manoeuvres and transitions in the Middle East, the United States of America doesn’t give an F any more.
