Peter Zilhen’s Demographics and Geopolitics

This will not be a regular article; it is a conversation I have had about investing and demographics which the reader would find interesting.

Disunited Nations

I strongly recommend reading Peter Zilhen’s disunited Nations and the end of the world is just the beginning.

Countries like China and Russia have massive problems; we could be saying the end of the Russian ethnic group, and the Chinese population may be under 600 million by the end of the century.

Both have massive problems; even in my own country, the UK has not invested in over 20 years in developing skills in industries.

As for China and Russia, they are terminal.

Only France, the United States and New Zealand had a boomer generation which had a replacement generation in the form of millennials.

I know there are places in Africa and Pakistan and others who have had children, but the developed world is having this massive problem.

Also, in the west, motherhood is seen as a negative, not a positive, and we have a decline in family values.

We also don’t have family units; we don’t have connections with siblings; if we even have any, we’re just becoming atomised.

In the 1960s, the Western world underwent a reformation just by how culture and attitude to religion and sex and relationships changed massively.

Some of it was good, and some were bad; we’re just finding out how bad it was for national health.

But the boomers are retiring this decade and the next, leaving a market where capital is hard to come by.

The boomers are taking their assets and liquidising them into cash, and the capital for a place with boomers won’t be as it is today until the 2040s.

It could be a massive mess, but we will know at the decade’s end.

But ageing demographics it’s something we can all see.

The Germans are nearly as bad as the Russians in terms of demographics.

The Germans industrialise within five generations, which means it has a bigger problem with its demographics.

A third of Germany is mountains, and that is bad for settlement and urbanisation, Leading to lower birth rates.

The last time the Germans had a serious baby boom was in the 1930s and 40s under Nazi Germany; they don’t like to talk about that period.

The French never bought it to the American world order and free trade; they kept their population strong and their ethnic group.

This means that the French are positioned to do neo-colonialism in a potential global collapse of the American system.

The United Kingdom need 20 years to rebuild its fleet, and it has demographic problems.

In comparison to France, it is 2.3 times bigger than the United Kingdom that is over 551000 square miles in comparison to the United kingdom’s 243,610

This means that the United Kingdom and France have more or less equal populations, but the UK is less than half that size.

A big plus for the United Kingdom was that unlike Japan and East Asian Nations and the Germans in Europe.

The United Kingdom started the road to industrialisation during the American Revolution from 1774 to 1783

This is seven generations of industrial development, meaning the UK had time to adapt and have a healthy population, unlike Nations that industrialised after.

For the South Koreans, it took 20 years to industrialise, and for Singapore and Japan, it took 30 years.

For the Chinese, it took them 40 years, and all of these Nations managed to industrialise because Nations like Germany and United Kingdom have already been down that road.

If a nation has already industrialised, it is easier for other nations to go down that path and do it quickly; it took the Germans five generations, the Spanish and Portuguese four generations and the Chinese and East Asians managed it in less than one.

With all their success, the growth of seven generations of industrial development, instead of being spread over generations, that kind of growth can only happen once.

After that happened, the nation faced massive democratic declines; the French took steps in the 1990s to maintain its national population of ethnic French.

It’s incredibly unfortunate that governance and people don’t have good conversations about the impact of demographics and Nations.

I believe some of this is due to PC culture, and people don’t want to be perceived as racist.

Furthermore, the true problem is ignorance and people not knowing their Nations and people’s history.

For myself, I tried to be a student of different people’s beliefs and cultures.

As for investing in the future, I recommend the United States as the safest bet; they have a healthy millennial generation, and since 2000, over 1 trillion dollars have flooded into the United States yearly.

Inflation could be there to stay for almost a decade due to the 400,000 shortfalls of workers in the United States.

Would this be partly due to the USA bringing him back home to manufacturing jobs.

Also, the USA produces 60% of global high-end semiconductors, so the USA, in terms of technology, produces the high-end equipment and outsources the low-end stuff to places like China.

But that looks like it could be coming to an end very soon.

Link to my Article on The Marshall Plan

Link to my article on The Guide to Understanding Currency