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Ukraine War and The Canary in the Coal Mine
Welcome back to today’s article. In today’s topic, I will discuss the Ukraine war and my theory that Russia’s involvement is due to Vladimir Putin and the Russian Federation’s massive misinterpretation of Western weakness.
I believe the two main factors that went into Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine, the first in 2014 and the second in February 2022, were the failure of American military interventions and the lack of interventions in the Middle East.
(Here is my behind the paywall link.)
This happened twice with the United States’ failure to intervene and manage the Syrian civil war, which has been ongoing from 2011 until the present day, with the United States' inability to get involved in 2012 and 2013 after the UK Parliament rejected military intervention in 2013.
The second perceived weakness by the Russians was the failure of political leadership to continue the war in Afghanistan, which was ongoing from 2001 to 2021. With the USA withdrawal, it gave the green light for the Russians to lodge a second invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
What the Russians massively misunderstood is that they correlated the American failures in the Middle East and made a false comparison with the state of Ukraine with the belief that the Ukrainian state would quickly.
They had this confidence due to what happened with the fall of Afghanistan in 2021.
We can see a similar example with the fall of the al-Assad regime in December 2024.
Both of these regimes were toppled quickly because neither regime had the support or consent of the people living within their respective nations.
They could only maintain themselves due to the intervention of their foreign backers, the United States of America and the Russian Federation. Those regimes did quickly fall without their support because they were hollow regimes.
Ukraine is an independent state, an independent people separate from Russia, and which has experienced a national awakening thanks to the Russian aggression from 2014 until…
