Western Europe in a Post-America World Order
Western Europe and its future have fundamentally changed due to two factors. The first factor is the decline in Germany’s demographics, with the average age being 44.7 years.
This demographic decline is terminal because it’s harder for women to give birth but not impossible after geriatric pregnancy, which is 35. When a woman gets into her 30s, pregnancy becomes more challenging.
She has fewer eggs available, or eggs are useful to give birth and to grow a child within her body, with the terminal decline of Germany’s demographics, which can no longer be reversed because they ran out of newborns 30 years ago.
They now stand to run out of adults due to the approaching mass retirement and no replacement generations available.
Germany is also the biggest contributor to the European Union budget, and when Germany transitions from one of the most powerful economies in Europe to becoming a basket case, it can no longer spend expenditure on its welfare programs.
No other government in Europe will take up the slack.
France, only things about France, thought and only saw the European project of European unity as a means to influence Europe and maintain a leash on Germany.
When Germany was reunited in 1990, it replaced France as the largest population, weakening French power on the continent.
The French and the British
In the post-American world order and the post-Germany, Europe will see a return to an environment more similar to the 18th century and 19th century, with the nations of Europe pursuing their geopolitical interests and other goals within their regions.
Without Germany, the European Union will likely fail unless France fills that void.
The French don’t have the appetite to do that. However, the French will be able to dictate policy in Europe as well.
The British remained in denial and refused to make any solid decisions, such as a more significant political union or partnership with the United States of America.
Alternatively, rebuilding its fleet would give the British options concerning foreign policy because it had the advantage of choosing the time and places where the British could exert its influence.
The British and French rivalry has been bloody over the last 300 years, and the English and French nations have been in conflict for nearly 900 years.
Unfortunately, the British has two carriers, which gutted British defence spending due to the British understanding of the importance of maintaining a strong Navy.
However, they have half-assed the process by having aircraft carriers that don’t have enough frigates or destroyers to protect those carriers, which means the British either have to get serious regarding military spending or go to the United States with a begging bowl.
As for the Americans, the interest in Europe is waning, and their overarching goal concerning that continent is to ensure no power, meaning no nation adequately dominates that region.
This includes ensuring a balance of power between the British, French, Russians, and other medium powers that will become influential, such as the Turkish in the Balkans and the Polish in central Europe.
The ideas underpinning the balance of power are that multiple great powers occupy a continent and that each of these nations balances each other out politically, militarily and economically, preventing any nation from being the dominant power in the continent.
A great historical example is the 18th century when Europe had five great powers: the Russians, the French, the British, the Austrians, and finally, the Prussians, which maintained a delicate balance in Europe.
