Will Regional Powers Support Hamas
Since 7 October 2023, the state of Israel has been at war with the terrorist-controlled organisation Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, which is one of the most densely populated areas on our planet.
Hamas has been the de facto governing body in the Gaza Strip since 2007 when it ousted the Palestinian Authority from power, which also included the murder of any of its members and other leadership figures within the Gaza Strip who were not Hamas-affiliated members.
Primarily in Gaza, it also maintains a presence in the West Bank, Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, and vital regional capitals, such as Doha, Qatar, and Cairo, Egypt.
As the situation unfolds in Gaza, many of you have asked who we might see getting involved in the conflict. So, let’s break down the key regional players and how this is playing out.
Egypt’s
The Gaza Strip was under Egyptian military rule from 1949 to 1956 and 1957 to 1967. From the beginning, the area’s chief economic and social problem was the presence of large numbers of Palestinian Arab refugees living in extreme poverty in squalid camps.
The Egyptian government also had no love for the Palestinians and very much viewed them as a significant problem to the security of Egypt. As for the Israelis, there’s always been the goal, least since the establishment of Israel in 1948, to push Palestinians out of the region.
The Israelis, if possible, would like to move the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip into the control of the Egyptian territory in the Sinai Peninsula, thereby securing the Gaza Strip for the use of Israel and removing terrorists and increasing the security of the state of Israel.
The Egyptians don’t have any genuine interest in the welfare of the Palestinians and prefer to stay out of the brewing conflict happening in the Gaza Strip.
People usually in the West only view the Middle East through social media posts written in English and liberal People in cities.
When we view events like the Arab Spring in 2010 and mass protests happening in the Middle East, we view that through their views of the more liberal-minded and minority in the Middle East that share views similar to Western liberalism.
We are not truly getting a clearer picture of their societies, and non-governmental organisations working in the regions often talk to people they like themselves or go to places where it’s safe.
This is slightly off-topic, but when the United States and its NATO allies worked in Afghanistan trying to do nation-building from 2001 to 2021, non-governmental organisations were brought into Afghanistan to develop the country.
Still, none of those people left the cities due to security reasons and cities being easier to manage.
People like people like themselves, and people tend to gather the information that is easiest for them to digest; that’s what makes it incredibly hard to truly understand the Middle East at first glance because we are viewing protests by liberals who are in the minority and not the majority.
Lebanon and Hezbollah
The country of Lebanon is an interesting case study on the change of demographics influencing political life; this is the transfer of the Christian majority becoming a minority, and the territory of Lebanon was originally a French colony.
When the French left in 1946, this new country was drawn online on a map not based on ethnic groups but by colonial lines drawn in the control of the Christian majority nation. However, due to declining birth rates, the rulership in that nation started to change, and conflict began to grow.
Until the late 1930s, Lebanon was a predominantly Christian country. The last official census, dating from 1932, gave the figure of 56% of Christians (mostly Catholics, mainly of the Maronite rite) and 44% of Muslims (predominantly Shiites).
The Lebanese Civil War was a multifaceted armed conflict from 1975 to 1990. It resulted in an estimated 150,000 fatalities and also led to the departure of almost one million people from Lebanon.
Terrorist group Hezbollah is a Shiite organisation that gets support from the Iranian government; with the Iranians most likely influencing the terrorist group Hamas to attack Israel in 2023, it’s doubtful that the Iranians would push Hezbollah into similar actions against Israel.
The reason for this is that Iran hates Israelis, but they do not wish to lose any more influence and agents of chaos within the region. The objective of the start of the Hamas-Israeli war in October of this year was to disrupt the normalisation of relations between Saudi Arabia and the state of Israel.
Iran and USA
As for Iranians getting involved in the conflict directly, for its troops to get to Israel, they will need to pass through Iraq, Syria and Jordan. Those nations are unlikely to let a foreign army pass through their lands.
Furthermore, the Iranians lack the kind of power projection, and they have no interest in sparking a conflict with the United States of America, which is a vital backer, at least currently, for the continued existence of the state of Israel that is unlikely to change in the immediate future.
The reasons why the United States may stop supporting Israel is due to the changing demographics within the USA with the increasing Latin American influence within the nation. This is not a bad or a good outcome.
It is how democracies work. For example, the African-American political commentator and host Candice Owens has zero interest in the Middle East and Ukraine for those reasons because she has no connections to them.
In contrast, her fellow presenter, who is part of the Daily Wire media group Ben Shapiro, who is the host of the Ben Shapiro show, is of Jewish descent and is deeply affected by the events happening in Israel.
Just as demographics change, different nations change their priorities due to changing voter bases and interest groups; the Latinos don’t have an interest in Europe or the Middle East but are instead more focused on North and South America.
Saudi Arabia
Finally, we have Saudi Arabia, whose actions will be defined by Mohammed bin Salman (born August 31, 1985), a member of the Saudi royal family who has served as crown prince since 2017 and prime minister since 2022 of Saudi Arabia.
He also served as Minister of Defence from 2015 to 2022.
He is the son of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz and his third wife, Fahdah bint Falāḥ ibn Sulṭān. The Crown Prince and the king of Saudi Arabia both come from two separate generations and the Crown Prince, being a millennial, has very little interest in Arab nationalism or the Palestinians as a whole.
He sees Israel as another partner in the regional power struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia.
The King of Saudi Arabia is very much a traditionalist, and he has very little regard for the state of Israel.
Over the next few months, we will discover who truly rules Saudi Arabia and which direction they will go in terms of foreign policy; if it gets violent, there is the possibility that the Crown Prince could be removed or the Crown Prince could move his father from the throne.
